A lot speak about logistics, let’s speak technique at present

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Ukraine is pushing out from Kyiv within the north, Kharkiv and Sumy within the northeast, and Mykolaiv towards Kherson within the south. Right here we’re within the northeast: 

This seems to be just like the assault into Trostyanets, south of Sumy. You know the way amateurs speak technique, and professionals speak logistics? Nicely, time to be amateurs and speak technique. Let’s take a look at the map:

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Purple is Russian held, orange means Russian forces are working in these areas, however aren’t safe.

Trostyanets is instantly south of Sumy. Under it is Okhtyrka, which Russia had tried to take during the last week and failed. 

So right here’s what Ukraine accomplishes by taking Trostyanets:

1) Russia is trying to totally encircle Sumy, to put siege in the identical method as Mariupol. By taking that metropolis, it protects Sumy’s southern strategy, which features a freeway to Kharkiv and a rail line. We haven’t talked about rail, however trains are probably the most environment friendly approach to transfer gear and provides. With Trostyanets in Ukrainian palms, it seems to be like provide strains are clear to each Kharkiv, and, zooming out, all the best way to Kyiv. Oh take a look at that, we talked logistics in any case!

2) The second decrease arrow is Okhtyrka, which has been closely shelled and assaulted in current weeks. Holding the city would’ve allowed Russia to consolidate its forces to Sumy’s south as they labored to encircle the town. By taking Trostyanets, Ukraine put an finish to that effort. Oh hey, logistics once more! By the way, this is the place the primary lady awarded Ukraine’s Hero of Ukraine award was killed. She was a fight medic killed by Russian artillery as she handled wounded troopers. 

3) Russia’s incapability to take cities has led to its murderous “indiscriminately shell civilians till they give up” technique. It hasn’t labored out militarily, however Russia doesn’t care. It’s how they’re taking out their anger and aggression on these insolent Ukrainians. Trostyanets was the house of a type of artillery items. We noticed this drone video two weeks in the past: 

In at present’s liberation, we see each destroyed self-propelled artillery weapons, and within the group-soldier shot, crates and crates of captured 155mm artillery rounds at that very same railway station.

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Destroyed Russian artillery gun in Trostyanets, south of Sumy.
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You may see crates of Russian artillery shells on the appropriate facet of this image, on the very prepare station we see within the video above.

This can be very harmful for Ukraine to go on the offensive, leaving ready defenses and exposing themselves to direct artillery hearth, shut air help, mines, and Russia’s personal ready defenses. Every goal must be chosen rigorously. It’s clear that Ukraine selected this one properly, blocking the encirclement of Sumy, reconnecting rail service to Kharkiv and Kyiv, and eliminating a serious supply of artillery distress raining demise on civilians in Sumy. Now we’ll see if Russia has the juice to retake it. 

The map above assumes Russian management from Trostyanets to Lebedin on to its northwest, the place it marks Lebedin as Ukrainian-held however contested. I couldn’t discover any current information about Lebedin, so I believe that tendril of Russian management has been rolled again. 

Let’s head on over to Kharkiv, the place Ukraine is celebrating the liberation of Vilkhivka. It’s a small little village, has like 5 roads. However the battle was fierce. 

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It’s proper on Kharkiv’s japanese border, and halts Russian efforts to attach their forces round Kharkiv, with their forces on the japanese Donbas entrance. Had Russia continued to make good points in japanese Kharkiv, they’d be near full management of that bypass freeway round Kharkiv, permitting for the resupply of troops besieging Izyum, and that whole line of defense that stretches out to Sievierodonetsk (surrounded on three sides), in some way nonetheless holding on. 

Look how lengthy and uncovered that offer tendril is from Russian-occupied Donbas, to the forces besieging Izyum. Look how a lot less complicated issues can be if they may rush provides instantly from Russia, above Kharkiv. This is the reason Russia’s incapability to take these border cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv are so disastrous for Russia. As a result of, sure, logistics. Strategic selections are all the time pushed by logistics, as a result of logistics are the sport. 

However technique can be attention-grabbing. 

Extra movies of the battle right here and right here. The battlefield is buzzing with drones, giving Ukraine’s forces intelligence into what they’re going through up the highway. Ukrainian artillery takes out uncovered Russian positions. Infantry accelerates the highway in civilian SUVs, stopping when the drones see hazard up forward, and letting armored personnel carriers filter defensive positions within the strategy to the village. On the town, Russian defenders are holed up in some office-looking constructing, so they bring about up a tank to shell it. We then see infantry fanning out all through the city, partaking in door-to-door city fight. A lot of Russians surrendered.

The place was the Russian artillery, focusing on Ukrainian forces massed in broad daylight? The place was Russian close-air help? Nowhere to be seen. 

Down south, the Ukrainian noose is tightening round Kherson, because the villages of Tomina Balka and Snihurivka have been liberated. 

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Simply 4 days in the past, Russia was attempting to push as much as the southern fringe of Mykolaiv, however all of that’s historical past as all of the orange and purple territory will get rolled up. The governor of Mykolaiv Oblast, Vitaliy Kim, says Russians deserted its checkpoints in Snihurivka. Given the dearth of fight video, I’m going to invest that Russia has retreated from the complete area round Kherson to defend the town. 

Russia did have its successes at present. They lastly captured Slavutych, on to Chernihiv’s west, and made good points to its south. [Update: Russian troops left Slavutych after negotiations with mayor.] Town is now absolutely encircled, and is getting the Mariupol therapy. Russia has blown the bridge connecting Chernihiv to Kyiv, which impacts each provide routes, and the power for refugees to flee. The scenario is dire. 

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Hopefully Ukraine can clear that pocket to Kyiv’s northeast, then push as much as relieve the siege of Chernihiv. It’s not clear that’s been driving Ukraine’s efforts on Kyiv’s japanese flank. The well-known Russian caravan and troops in Bucha are obnoxious, however they’re not shut sufficient to threaten Kyiv with artillery. They’re additionally contained, motionless, and digging into defensive positions. Thus, apart from opening up that freeway from Kyiv to the nation’s west, the actual focus will seemingly be rescuing Chernihiv. Godspeed to that.

Sunday, Mar 27, 2022 · 2:48:06 AM +00:00 · kos

Extra excellent news: 

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UPDATE: Are you able to consider there are cities with that identify in each Kharkiv Oblast, and Zaborizhzhia? Truly, there are six Poltavkas in Ukraine, and two extra in Russia. Malynivka is even crazier—I counted 12-ish, and at the very least another in Russia. So I initially posted the unsuitable ones, those in Sumy Oblast. So I deleted all the opposite stuff stuff I wrote, and right here is the place these cities really are, simply east of Huliapole. : 

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Because of CA Pol Junkie within the feedback for catching the error. 

Sunday, Mar 27, 2022 · 3:43:47 AM +00:00 · Mark Sumner

Oryx, who has been visually cataloging each main navy system destroyed, broken, or captured in Ukraine, has their very own listing of what weapons Ukrainian forces want to hold victory throughout the road.

“To guard Ukrainian property on the bottom and ensure Russia doesn’t attain aerial superiority, it’s in dire want of stronger air defence property. Though MANPADS (each foreign-delivered and Ukrainian) have been devastatingly efficient within the battle, longer ranged programs would enable defenders extra freedom on pleasant territory, in impact enabling more practical defence and counter assault. … Pragmatically, Ukraine would seemingly profit most from cellular medium-to-long ranged air defences with which it’s already acquainted, such because the 9K33 Osa that could possibly be equipped by Bulgaria, Greece or Poland…”

There’s additionally a suggestion that Turkey might pair these bayraktar drones with the precision guided TRLG-230 rocket launcher. That means every drone might each unload its personal weapons, then linger to direct hearth to many extra.

Sunday, Mar 27, 2022 · 6:21:04 AM +00:00 · kos

That’s southeast of Izyum, the highest of the tendril you may see right here:

“Expelled” just isn’t the appropriate phrase. They have been repelled

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That sounds and appears proper. If Ukraine takes Balakilla, Russian forces round Izyum are fairly near getting minimize off. 



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