Wow, what a day! Let’s deal with this as a recap. 

Because of Russia, cats and canine are working along with the French, to do one thing that ought to’ve been executed weeks in the past.

The important thing right here is that French President Emmanuel Macron hasn’t informed Vladimir Putin but. This isn’t some bullshit drawn-out negotiation. France, Greece and Turkey are working collectively to make it occur, and France will inform Putin, not ask for permission. Putin may threaten in return, which might result in a standoff. Russia might blockade entrance to the Azov Sea. The entire space is closely mined, so reduction ships could be in nice hazard. Any evacuation would result in shelling of the refugees making a run for the ready ships. And Russians may attempt to block any escape, for concern of Azov members and different Ukrainian forces mixing in and getting out. So that is on no account a straightforward operation. However so glad it’s being labored on. 

Kyiv/northern entrance: No territory modified fingers. Artillery battles enjoying out in NW Kyiv, whereas one other Russian try to interrupt by way of Brovary on the northeastern aspect was repulsed by Ukraine. Makariv was declared liberated a few days in the past, however Ukraine stories heavy preventing continues round that city. 

Kharkiv/Sumy/Northeast entrance: Ukrainian forces pushed Russians out of two villages east of Kharkiv, providing some reduction to the besieged metropolis. In Sumy Oblast, Russian forces are as soon as once more on the offensive, although no territory modified fingers. 

Donbas entrance: Russian troops made beneficial properties of their efforts to totally encircle Izyum, gaining about 10 kms of floor to its southeast. This city is essential for each resupplying Ukrainian forces within the area, and since the Donets river that runs by way of the center of town creates a pure barrier to the Russian advance. Russia is most lively on this entrance, and it’s clear they’re going to redouble their efforts right here. Mariupol hangs on. Taking town is costing Russia dearly, by the appears to be like of all of the destroyed gear and lifeless our bodies (drone footage, however forewarned) on Twitter and Telegram.

Mykolaiv/Kherson/Crimea/South entrance: Ukraine was confirmed to have liberated Snihurivka and Novovorontsovka within the area. 

With Snihurivka taken (the underside arrow), that’s loads of Russian forces minimize off to its northeast, although nobody (other than the Ukrainian and Russian armies) actually is aware of what’s left up there. I’m torn between rooting for Russia to have pulled again, permitting Ukraine to roll up that territory with minimal loss, and having Russian forces trapped up there, simpler pickings for the defenders. Regardless, that bizarre, under-resourced, and at all times doomed effort reaching out to Kryvyi Rih is formally over, simply once I had lastly realized to spell that metropolis’s identify with out wanting it up. 

To emphasize once more (as I did in a earlier replace), the New York Instances report that Ukraine had a presence in Kherson was utter bullshit, a mangling of a Pentagon report that Ukraine was now difficult Kherson Oblast, the executive area. And it’s doing so, so far as we will inform, by shelling Kherson’s airport, at the moment occupied by Russia. The standard media has executed an excellent job masking the refugee and humanitarian disaster, however an abysmal job masking the army aspect. Don’t assume they know what they’re speaking about simply because they’re The New York Instances or different such mainstream information outlet. 

For those who haven’t caught Mark Sumner and me discussing the conflict this week, test it out:

In the meantime, I’ve been saying that Russia’s weak point would embolden violence within the central Asian nations it has meddled in. For instance, Armenia holds disputed territory in Azerbaijan, held with the assistance of Russian “peacekeepers.” Effectively, a lot for that peace. 

Russia’s fall from grace will embolden not simply an effort to retake many of those disputed territories, however might additionally spark new violence in a few of Russia’s hinterland areas. Certainly, it’d even be in China’s curiosity to quietly prod a few of these alongside. Count on loads of violence within the years forward now that the parable of the Russian Bear has been shattered. 

Different Ukraine updates right now: